🗳️ Election season is (almost) here!

Madrid | Issue #141

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Ready, steady, vote

✉️ Andalucía fires the starting gun on Spain’s electoral season

Remember Spain’s one, two, three recent regional elections? Well, they were just the warmup to the one in Andalucía. The biggest “autonomous community” (how lacking in poetry that term is!), and a former stronghold of PM Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE center-lefties that for the last eight years has gone for the center-right PP, Andalucía is the big kahuna of regional votes. It’s Spain’s Texas! Or Florida! Or…both?

• And now Andalucía is officially going to the polls. Consider this the kickoff the the election season that will only end when Sánchez cries uncle makes the considered decision to call national elections. Folks, the starting pistol has been fired! 🔫

Moreno brings down the hammer. On Monday evening, the president of Andalucía, PP’s Juanma Moreno, called surprise regional elections for May 17, sending 6.5 million people (around 20% of Spain’s voters) to the polls two weeks earlier than expected. (He apparently only told PP boss Alberto Nuñez Feijóo two hours earlier and his own team 30 minutes before, so we know this was a Top Secret move to catch someone off guard — more on that in a moment).

On paper, the explanation is straightforward. Moreno wants a new government up and running before the summer. But the real logic behind the timing is more strategic.

• Busy times. June was complicated. The Pope’s visit to Spain between June 6 and 12 would have disrupted the campaign (many people in Andalucía will travel to Madrid and Barcelona to see him), and Andalucía’s packed spring calendar, from Feria de Abril to El Rocío, risks depressing turnout in unpredictable ways.

• Even the chosen date isn’t perfect, as it clashes with the Feria de Córdoba, something that quietly worries the PP. Still, May 17 is the least bad option.

• And then there was the bigger, unspoken reason: Pedro Sánchez. As speculation grew that the PM would try to capitalize on the momentum he'd garnered from his "No a la guerra” stance on the Iran war by calling snap national elections on May 31 (the day the chattering classes expected Moreno to choose), Moreno may have decided it was best not to risk being overshadowed.

Who’s ahead? As things stand, Moreno enters the race as the clear favorite. Polls suggest he could win 55 seats in the Andalusian parliament — a majority of the 109 seats, barely. That's down from his current 58, but still a remarkable position in a region that was a PSOE stronghold for decades until the PP’s breakthrough in 2018.

• His biggest concern is not losing, but how much he wins. The rise of far-right Vox could force him into a scenario he is keen to avoid. That is, falling short of a majority and needing a pact with the far-right to govern, as has already happened in regional elections in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León.

• Open the door. Vox, which now holds 14 seats, is expected to grow slightly and could become kingmaker if Moreno falls short of a majority. And unlike in 2019, Vox has already made clear it would seek to be part of the government this time, not just support it from the outside.

• Moreno has built his brand on stability and moderation (and his namesake"fachaleco"), and being forced into a pact with Vox would undermine that carefully crafted image.

The socialists are not giving up. Facing him is María Jesús Montero, Spain’s (admittedly charmless) Finance Minister and Sánchez’s right-hand woman, who is leaving the government to focus entirely on the campaign.

• Lukewarm enthusiasm. The PSOE is polling poorly (polls suggest Montero could get even less than the 30 seats the PSOE has now). Her strategy is to turn the election into a referendum on public services like healthcare, which has become one of the main concerns for Andaluces amid long waiting lists and scandals like the recent failures in breast cancer screening programs.

• This strategy may not land as cleanly as expected. Moreno’s government has just reached an agreement with healthcare unions that improves conditions for 130,000 workers.

• The further left won't help much. To the left of the PSOE, there are up to three competing forces: the Por Andalucía coalition, far-left Podemos (which still hasn’t decided whether to run alone or in coalition), and Adelante Andalucía, a regionalist left-wing party. Their fragmentation does not augur success.

Bottom line. Andalucía is the most symbolic test ahead of the next general elections, which are officially scheduled for 2027 but increasingly feel closer. Whether Sánchez actually calls them early or not, what happens on May 17 will shape expectations across the country.

More news below. 👇👇

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💬 Five things to discuss at dinner parties

1. 🛐 Sagunto’s confraternity says no women allowed (again)

You can’t seat procession with us. Spain’s most controversial confraternity just said “no” to women. Again. Over the weekend, the confraternity of Sagunto, one of the oldest in the country, voted against allowing women to take part in its main procession.

• Wait, what the hell is a confraternity (or cofradía)? Cofradías are Catholic brotherhoods that organize religious processions during Semana Santa (i.e., next week).

• The one in Sagunto, Valencia, dates back more than 500 years (founded: 1492) and has around 1,600 members. It’s the backbone of a celebration that has held the status of Festival of National Tourist Interest since 2004.

• There’s just one problem: it’s still men-only. Women can help behind the scenes, preparing robes, organizing logistics, basically keeping the whole thing running, but they’re not allowed to actually walk in the procession.

That’s what this vote was about. The proposal was as simple as it gets — change one word in the statutes, replacing “men” with “people.”

• But in a closed-door assembly where only male members could vote (hmm…), the result wasn’t even close: 267 votes against, 114 in favor.

• The reasoning? Tradition. Some members even went further: if women want to participate, “they can just create their own confraternity”. (Which, in their case, would be a consorority; an actual word).

• And the weight! Others worried about what would happen if women joined. Like, longer waiting lists, changes to internal rules, even questions about who carries the heavy floats.

The same debate has been going on for decades. It was rejected in 1999 and again in 2022. Activists have been protesting since at least 2021, calling it outright discrimination. But no dice. Not even a recent Constitutional Court ruling in a similar case that sided with a woman in the Canary Islands who had been excluded moved the needle.

• For the women pushing for change, it’s not about blowing up the tradition but about finally being part of it. “We don’t want to destroy Semana Santa, we want to participate equally,” one said.

Keeping the peace. The clavario, the young organizer of this year’s festivities (he’s 23), tried to strike a middle ground. He admitted that, in the 21st century, it makes sense to ask for inclusion, but insisted the environment isn’t “machista” and that many members are simply trying to preserve a deeply rooted tradition.

Not buying it. The Spanish government had warned that excluding women could cost Sagunto its “National Tourist Interest” status, which brings visibility and funding.

• Now, after the negative vote, the PSOE-led government confirmed they’ll move to revoke it, arguing that you can’t claim broad public participation while excluding half the population.

• Even Valencia’s regional president Juanfran Pérez Llorca, from the center-right PP, had called for dialogue and inclusion and was hoping for a different outcome. (He acknowledged that the cofradía is a private entity.)

Not our fight. The Church isn’t stepping in here. The Archbishop of Valencia has made it clear there will be no top-down intervention to force change, arguing that any reform should come from within the cofradía itself.

• This could take 500 more years. Just saying.

2. ✅ The IMF grades Spain’s economy — and warns about the war

Remember the Men in Black? No, not the movie with the murderous cute aliens and the guy who slapped Chris Rock, but the economists from the IMF — the guys in suits who swooped in after the 2008 financial crisis and told countries like Ireland and Spain to spend less and screw the poor.

• Well, they’re back. Not to impose austerity this time (thanks, guys), but to issue their latest report card on Spain’s economy (officially called an “Article IV Mission” because the IMF is nothing if not poetic). So, how are we doing?

The Good 😇. Spain remains one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe, outpacing most of its eurozone peers. Growth is still expected to lead big EU countries this year, driven by strong domestic demand, solid job creation, rising wages, EU funds, and — wait for it — lots of immigration.

• Even the energy shock from the war hasn’t hit as hard as it could have. Why? Renewables. Spain’s massive investment in solar and wind over the past decade is now paying off, cushioning the blow from soaring gas prices. So the lights stay on, and the economy keeps humming. Which is nice, right?

The Bad ⚠️. Now comes the warning label. The IMF has cut its growth forecast for Spain for this year from 2.3% to 2.1%, and expects a gradual slowdown — to around 1.7% in 2027 — as some of our recent tailwinds fade.

• The biggest risk? The war. Energy prices have already surged — oil is up more than 50%, and gas has nearly doubled — and if the conflict drags on, the IMF warns it could hit investment, consumption, and growth, while keeping inflation stubbornly above 3%. So, like, if this turns into a long war, not even all the solar panels in Extremadura can let Spain escape it.

• There are also political risks at home. The IMF politely notes that Spain’s fragmented parliament raises “questions” about whether the government can actually pass the reforms it needs. (If you need that translated, they mean, “Good luck with that.”)

The Ugly 😬. This is where the long-term scaries begin.

• First, there’s housing. The IMF is blunt here (and they agree with what we’ve been saying). Spain needs more housing. And unless someone proves otherwise, rent controls appear to be making the situation worse by pushing landlords to take homes off the market. Their advice? If the evidence holds, scrap the rent caps when their three-year trial ends next year. And build more — lots more.

• And then, Spain is getting old. From 2030 onward, Spain faces a huge rise in spending on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care — like, one of the biggest increases in Europe. Because so many more olds! Public debt, which is currently under control, is expected to start climbing again. Fun! The IMF suggestion (hidden in economist speak)? Maybe be less generous. (That seems unlikely.)

Our take. Spain is doing a lot right in terms of growth, jobs, and renewables. But the IMF’s message is pretty clear — enjoy it while it lasts. Because between war abroad, housing at home, and a tidal wave of Spaniards heading into retirement, it’s not gonna get a lot easier.

3. 💥 The Iran war takes over parliament

And it was a hot one! PM Pedro Sánchez’s appearance in the Spanish Parliament’s regular oversight session/fight club yesterday focused on the upcoming elections in Andalucía, the Iran war, and a batch of emergency decrees meant to ease the economic pain caused by the conflict (read: high oil prices).

• Oh, and lots of insults. We’ll get to that. But first, your vegetables: the decrees.

Two decrees enter, one decree leaves. Of the two packages of emergency measures, the PSOE-led government has the votes to pass the first, and basically zero chance of passing the second.

• The winner. A €5bn plan with 80 measures aimed at pretty much everyone (20 million households, 3 million businesses). The highlights: cheaper energy (electricity taxes slashed 60%, a gas tax cut of up to €0.30/liter), protections for vulnerable households (no cutting off utilities), and aid for industry, farmers, and transport. Plus more love for renewables, because Spain is all-in on the whole energy independence thing.

• The loser. An obligatory two-year extension of rental contracts and a temporary 2% cap on annual rent rises. Landlords (and many normal people are landlords) were not having this.

• And the surprise! In exchange for backing decree #1, Catalan separatists got Sánchez to agree to adopt an EU rule exempting autónomos earning under €85,000 from charging VAT. As autónomos ourselves, we have never felt more pro-separatist.

Now, the fun part. Highlights of the fighting.

• Worst ever. The PP’s parliamentary spokeswoman, Ester Muñoz, called departing Finance Minister María Jesús Montero, “the most arrogant person in history and the worst Finance minister our country has ever had.” Montero fired back, “They bark, as we ride on.”

• Nice sticker. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo mocked an Iranian propaganda clip showing a missile tagged with Sánchez’s face and “Thank you, Prime Minister” in reference to his opposition to the war: “Hard to defend peace when Iranian propaganda puts you on a missile.”

And then… everyone said ‘No to war.’ Sánchez revived the Iraq-era slogan, and parliament promptly remixed it:

• Alberto Nuñez Feijoo (PP): “No to war, and no to you [to Sánchez].”

• Santiago Abascal (Vox): “No to the war of one brave man with everyone else’s balls.” (Whatever that means❓)

• Verónica Martínez Barbero (Sumar): “No to war, yes to renewables.”

• Maribel Vaquero (PNV): “No to war like a Game of Thrones.”

• Néstor Rego (BNG): “No to war, but with actions, not words.”

Aw, look, they’re all against the war. They just disagree on literally everything else.

4. 🚔 Potential terrorist attack in Mallorca stopped and jihadist arrested

The 2000’s are back. A potential jihadist attack in Spain may have just been stopped before it even began. Yesterday, Spanish police, working with Moroccan intelligence, said they dismantled a suspected jihadist cell that was allegedly planning an attack.

• Three people were arrested, one in Palma de Mallorca, no less, right in the center of one of Spain’s biggest tourist hotspots, and two more in Tangier, Morocco.

• The operation was carried out by Spain’s Policía Nacional and Morocco’s DGST, in a coordinated cross-border investigation led by Spain’s Audiencia Nacional.

The man arrested in Mallorca is believed to be the leader of the cell and was allegedly already moving beyond radicalization into actual planning.

• Investigators say he was preparing an attack in the country inspired by “lone-wolf” terrorism (i.e., the kind that’s designed to be harder to detect and prevent).

• The two suspects arrested in Tangier, were reportedly involved in financing and logistical support for jihadist groups linked to ISIS, particularly in regions like the Sahel and Somalia that have become global terrorism hotspots in recent years.

Yikes. What do we actually know? Not much beyond that. The investigation is still ongoing, officially under secrecy, and police haven’t disclosed targets, timelines, or how advanced the alleged plan really was.

This didn’t turn into an attack, but it’s a reminder of something Spain knows all too well.

• Spain has long been on the radar of jihadist terrorism, most notably with the Madrid train bombings in 2004, the deadliest attack in the country’s recent history, and the 2017 attack at La Rambla in Barcelona.

Spanish security forces since then have focused on prevention, monitoring networks, tracking radicalization, and working closely with partners, especially Morocco.

5. 🪦 Another American tourist died on vacation in Barcelona. Is Spain dangerous?

The tragic death last week of American tourist James Gracey has drawn massive attention in both the U.S. and Spain, after new details emerged about his final hours in Barcelona.

• Spring breaker. Gracey, a University of Alabama student, was in the city for spring break when he was reported missing on March 17, sparking a search by friends and family.

• Tragic finale. Two days later, his body was found in shallow water near the beachfront nightclub he had visited the night before. A local thief had his phone, but authorities say the death appears accidental. Surveillance footage reportedly shows him falling into the water, where he drowned.

Gracey was not the first. Over recent years, several American visitors have died in Spain under tragic circumstances — usually involving risk, bad luck, or both.

Murder on the Camino. In 2015, Denise Thiem, 40, disappeared while walking the Camino de Santiago. She was last seen on April 5 in the town of Astorga, after attending Easter celebrations and continuing her journey along the trail.

• No worries at first. Pilgrims often go off-grid. But as days turned into weeks, fears grew. Months later, her body was discovered in a rural area, and Spanish authorities arrested a local man who later confessed to killing her.

Deadly mountain adventure. Another case is that of Cole Henderson, 27, who disappeared while hiking in the Pyrenees. Five days after putting his cell phone into airplane mode to begin hiking in the Ordesa y Monte Perdido National Park (Huesca), and two days after missing a flight to the Netherlands, a search was launched.

• Sad discovery. The next month, Henderson’s body was found on the north face of Monte Perdido, the third-highest peak in the Pyrenees. The route to the top is rated as “Peu Difficile” (PD), meaning “somewhat difficult”, but that route — the level sometimes requires ice axes or crampons — was still covered in snow in early July,

Dangerous tides. A young American student, Alan Patrick, died in early 2026 while visiting the Canary Island of Lanzarote. Patrick, just days short of 21, was swimming with friends in the natural rock pools of Los Charcones, an area known for its dramatic volcanic landscape.

• Weather warnings. Strong Atlantic swells had already prompted warnings, and parts of the area had been closed. Despite this, Patrick and his group were swimming in one of the rock pools, and a powerful wave swept them into the ocean. While his friends were able to escape, Patrick was carried out to sea. His body was recovered two days later by a Guardia Civil dive team.

So, is Spain dangerous for tourists? Members of the commentariat have suggested that it is (because that’s what they do). But the data says otherwise.

• The real danger in Spain isn’t human. Thiem’s death is the exception, not the rule. Spain’s homicide rate, at 0.7 per 100,000 people, is one of the lowest in the world (and ⅛ that of the U.S.). The danger here is nature and bad decisions. So maybe pay attention to the sea and mountains — and ease off the tinto de verano.

🙏 Once again, please remember to share this newsletter with your friends on social media. The more we grow, the more information we’ll be able to offer each week.

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